As the disappointment that is the 2004 baseball season turns toward the home stretch, it's become a foregone conclusion that Carlos Delgado will be elsewhere in 2005. After all, the club did ask him to waive his no-trade clause, and General Manager JP Ricciardi is on record as stating that Delgado will not be offered salary arbitration. So, the greatest offensive Blue Jay of them all will walk at season's end, with nary a draft pick or prospect in return.

Or will he?

It's entirely possible that when the Jays pull up stakes on October 3, that it will be the last time Delgado dons a Jays uniform… at least until Alumni Week 2015. Look a little closer, though, and there's a compelling argument to be made that Delgado will still be a Jay next April.

1. Carlos Delgado likes Toronto. Or at least he certainly seems to. Item 1: He requested a no-trade clause. Item 2: He later enforced said no-trade clause when he could have gone to a contender and had a shot at the playoffs, very likely enhancing his status heading into free agency. He has never criticized the organization, or the city, or hinted at wanting out, or had anyone show up at the SkyDome hotel looking to shoot him. Torontonians can't be blamed for their scepticism after Alomar, McGrady, Joseph, Clemens et al, but from all appearances, Toronto would seem to be high on, if not at the top, of places Delgado would want to play in 2005.

2. The Market. Delgado was the highest paid player in baseball for about a minute and a half when he signed his 4-year, $68 million in 2000. Since then, top salaries have plummeted and teams have been far more responsible about awarding long-term millstone contracts to players. Consider that Vladimir Guerrero, a Hall of Fame talent just coming into his peak years signed for "just" $14 million a season last winter. Four years ago, teams would have been falling over themselves to pay Vladi $20 million a year without batting an eyelash. Delgado has a large pay cut coming, wherever he goes.

3. The Slump. Delgado has struggled through the worst season of his career, which is no way to head into free agency. If he goes nuts over the last month of the season, I mean Player of the Month, Roy Hobbs, Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs-nuts, he might end up hitting .280 with 35 HRs and 100+ RBI. That's a nice season, but one that's unlikely to have too many teams eager to break the bank. More likely, he'll finish around .250, 28, 90, which is decent, but won't give his agent a ton of leverage when trying to work out his next deal.

4. The Injuries. Delgado spent a significant chunk of time on the DL in 2004, adding a rib strain to his history of knee problems. At 32, he's probably a good bet for another DL stint or two over the life of his next contract. Injuries could scare interested teams off, or at least have them think twice before offering Delgado a mint.

5. The Internal Options. After 2002, when it was obvious that Delgado's contract wasn't exactly going to mesh with the management principles of JP Ricciardi, Toronto fans could take some comfort in the fact that there were two viable replacements on the rise. Eric Hinske had completed a Rookie of the Year campaign, and while he was a bit lumbering around third base, as a hitter he looked like he just might grow into a Giambi. Then there was Josh Phelps, who had spent half a season with the big club, battering pitchers to the tune of a .309/.362/.562 line.

Fast forward two seasons and Phelps is gone, abandoned in a rather bewildering trade after failing to produce. Meanwhile Hinske's hitting like a Giambi alright, it just happens to be Jeremy. In a cruel twist, Hinske's defense has improved to the point that he's a decent third baseman, but his bat is becoming unacceptable for the hot corner, let alone first base.

Possible candidates to replace Delgado include Eric Crozier and John Hattig, a pair of middling prospects with good numbers in the minors, but for either to become an impact hitter at the Major League level would be something of a surprise.

6. The Suitors. If Delgado is going to flee for free agent millions, exactly where is he going to go? Let's check the usual suspects:

Yankees: Giambi's health is a concern, but unless he retires over the offseason, there's no chance of Delgado landing with the Bombers.

Orioles: This one is possible, but Peter Angelos did drop a hefty chunk of change to bolster the offence of the fourth place Orioles last season, signing Tejada, Lopez and Palmeiro, whose hitting has lifted the O's all the way to, let's see… fourth place. Look for pitching to be the priority on the Orioles radar.

Mets: As Mike Piazza ages, he's going to be playing more first, not less.

Rangers: Once a rumoured trade destination for Delgado, it's hard to see what Texas would want with him when they have Mark Texeira.

Red Sox: Between Cookie Monster and Doug Mientkiewicz, dalliances with second base aside, the Sox are set.

Dodgers: Count LA General Manager Paul DePodesta squarely in the camp of those unlikely to hand out big contracts to first basemen on the wrong side of 30, especially now that he has reasonably-priced slugger Hee Choi.

Angels: New owner Arte Moreno is something of a free spender and seems to have a penchant for Latin players, but Darin Erstad has a year left on his 4-year/$32 million deal, and is having a superficially decent year at the plate, so it's likely he'll be back at first.

Cardinals: Pujols.

Cubs: Derek Lee.

Phillies: Thome.

Montreal: Ok, just kidding. But if the 'Spos do finally move and the new owners are anxious to make a free agent splash, don't look for it to be at first, where Nick Johnson is the club's best remaining everyday player.

There simply aren't that many viable places for Delgado to play, and there certainly aren't enough of them to spark a bidding war.

And lest you think that American League teams might have designs on Delgado purely as a DH, keep in mind that Delgado likes to play the field, to the point that David Segui, a superior defender at 1B, played only 4 of 31 games there during his brief stint with the Jays in 1999. It's highly unlikely that Delgado would sign anywhere with the notion of being the full-time DH.

7. The God Bless America Protest. It has become known that Delgado, who opposes the war in Iraq, does not stand for God Bless America during the seventh inning stretch. It's a quiet, personal protest, but one that didn't escape the radar of the New York media and, ultimately, Yankees fans, who booed Delgado lustily during the Jays last visit. Google "God Bless America" and "Delgado," and you get more than 2200 results already. This is an issue that will certainly come up should Delgado sign with an American-based team. Owners may not want to risking ticking off a significant portion of their fan base, and Delgado probably won't want to be questioned relentlessly about his politics, something he can avoid by re-signing with the Jays.

Taken altogether, a cynical sportswriter - and there are a few of them around - could spin the signing of Delgado as "Home team signs injury prone, past-his-prime, anti-American slugger coming off his worst season ever." There are enough risk factors here that it's hard to see Delgado receiving a $10 million/year contract offer.

Of course the caveat to this argument is that it takes just one owner willing to overpay to cause a free agent to show somewhere unexpected (See Rodrigues, Alex), but owners have become much tighter with their purse strings, and that gives the Jays a fighting chance to retain their franchise player.

I could certainly see an incentive-laden contract, say $6 million base, with another million if Delgado makes the All-Star team, another million if he finishes top-5 in MVP voting, and $2 million if he wins the award. $9 million for a season of Carlos Delgado, MVP, is money well spent.