Jim Turner & Joel Williams - July 16, 2003
The following is an email exchange by Jim and Joel which began minutes after the news of the Stewart for Kielty deal broke.
Joel: What the hell kind of deal is that?!
I was sure you at least had the PTBN part wrong - it couldn't be Stewart AND another player for this jobber.
Yeah, Kielty likes to walk. So what? I'd like to walk..up to Riccardi and punch his nose. This kid is 26. If he was going to be good, he'd be good by now.
I thought we got rid of Jose Cruz!!!
Jim: So long as the PTBNL isn't Wells, this is a good trade. Kielty's a balanced switch hitter who can lead off, and has 20-25 HR power, who makes 5% of Stewart's salary.
What exactly is the problem?
Joel: The problems are:
1) The PTBN. Why? Since a PTBN has like a $ 0 salary, it suggests that Kielty is a better player than Stewart straight up. Which he is not. You and JP can take your walks and stick'em up your Pujols - a walk isn't just as good as a hit. I'd take a player with a .315 BA and an OBP of .360 over a player with a BA of .252(!) and an OBP of .375.
2) The sorry state of the Jays' pitching staff. They let Jose Cruz go because they didn't need another player like him. "We've got a whole bunch of good young outfielders, let's trade Stewart for... a good young outfielder." Counterproductive!!
3) Kielty's "balanced" OPS of under .700 vs Righties (since Reed Johnson should play whenever there's a lefty on the hill.)
(And, you're right - Kielty does have 20-25 HR power...over his career! -- It's more like 15 HRs, dude. And Eddy Zoskie could hit 15 HRs in this era.)
Jim: Kielty's career is 631 ABs old, which is to say, roughly a Shannon Stewart season, in which he's hit 23 HRs. His OPS versus righties over that time is .916, so I don't think he needs to be platooned for. They got rid of Jose Cruz because he was set to make $5 million bucks to be mediocre. They signed Catalanotto the next week.
I'll wait to see who the player to be named is, but I suspect it's someone like Simon Pond - a non-prospect until this season, who's having a great year, but is still long odds to make an impact at the major league level. As to the pitching, I'll ask you the same question I asked Chris: What did you think we were going to get for the $6.2 million singles-hitting defensive liability? It wasn't going to be Mark Prior. I'm much happier getting Kielty than Kenny Rogers.
Having a lot of young outfielders is not a bad thing. You can bundle the ones who aren't going to play and trade them for pitching help. Who knows, Kielty might be here a week, and then off to Oakland.
I agree that right now, Bobby Kielty is not a better player than Shannon Stewart. But they're just about even, and when you factor in age and contract, he's a more valuable asset, especially to a team on a budget. Look at it this way:
Kielty (younger, better OBP, more power)
for
2.5 months of Shannon Stewart
Over the next three years, who's more likely to be the better player? Here's a hint: he'll be the guy wearing blue.
Joel: Ah yes, 631 ABs is a Shannon Stewart season, but not a Bobby Kielty season. A Kielty season - filled with BBs - is more likely around 450 ABs. Which is, what, 17 HRs?
But here I am arguing against Bobby Kielty, which is not what I intended to do. (He's a good hitter, and I'm sure I'll like seeing him in a Jays' uniform.) I'm instead riled up as far what the Jay's DIDN'T get. What the Jays didn't need was a decent outfielder. They needed a good young arm. The trade deadline is weeks away. Is Kielty for Stewart and a PTBN the best they could do?
Jim: That would be 181 walks, which would be quite the season, but to address your question, I think it probably was just about the best they could do.
The trade deadline is only 2 weeks away, and there aren't THAT many contenders who need an outfielder. The Yankees and Sox are obviously set - ditto the Braves, the Dodgers just picked up Burnitz... Personally, I thought the Cubs were a good match with Patterson going down for the season, but the odds are good that Ricciardi explored that avenue. The fact that the deal does come with a couple of weeks before the deadline could indicate that this is just the beginning, and perhaps a couple of young outfielders (Kielty among them) will be dealt for an arm or two, but picking up a relatively young and talented player for an asset that was going to walk next year anyway is a good deal.
It now looks like the Jays will be picking up all of Stewart's contract this season. On the one hand, that's less money in the Jays pocket, but on the other, it's now highly doubtful that the PTBN will be anyone of consequence.
Joel: The fact that the Jays have Kielty for four years (if they don't package and flip him for something else) makes me feel a little better. Yes, I would have felt a whole lot better if I knew the Jays weren't paying Stewart's salary to have him play right field(!!) for the Twins.
Oh well. The Jays now have 4 outfielders who have proven they can play at the big league level, and Jason Werth waiting in the wings. You're right, depth is good. My next question: who bats leadoff tonight?
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