To borrow a trick from Jayson Stark of Espn.com, compare the season stats for the following two outfielders:

	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	AB/HR
Player A	489	128	27	0	15	59	24	6	.262	.298	32.6
Player B	608	167	34	4	23	100	9	4	.275	.305	26.4

Player B has slightly more power; he had an extra-base hit every 9.97AB's compared to Player A, who had one every 11.64 AB's. Player A on the other hand is a more successful base stealer, both by number and success rate. When we consider that Player A's season is taken from 1985, while player B's is from 2002 these differences are lessened as home runs are more common and stolen bases less common now than in 1985. These two players are both free swinging power hitters with very good speed, as evidenced by their stolen base and doubles totals.

Eagle-eyed Jays fan out there will notice those even 100 RBI's from 2002 and recognize Player B as Vernon Wells. Player A is Joe Carter's 1985 season. And while its premature to compare Vernon Wells to a very-good-but-not-quite-Hall-of-Fame player, the similarities are striking. Both players are a rare combination of power and speed, and both Wells and Carter have conspicuously low walk rates. Despite these similarities, Carter does leave some big shoes to fill. He was a very durable player. From 1986 to 1997, Carter played in 1,831 of his teams' 1,879 games (97.4%), just 44 fewer than another durable guy named Ripken.

He had a knack of joining teams who improved after his arrival. He hit .302 with a league-leading 121 RBI's for the 1986 Cleveland Indians, turning them from a laughing stock into a not-bad team. They turned right back into a luaghing stock soon after Carter left for San Diego. San Diego was a pretty crummy team, but his time in Toronto went pretty well. Hmmm... 2 out of 3 ain't bad. Carter became a fan favourite in Toronto. Wells isn't quite as charismatic or smiley yet, but if those guys at Skydome who chant "Vernon" whenever he's up (you guys rule, wherever you are) are any indication, he's rapidly becoming a fan favourite in these parts.

A point in Vernon Wells' favour is that he was 23 during the 2002 season, while Joe Carter was 25 during the 1985 season. At 23, Joe was just debuting in the majors, playing in 23 games. He hit .176, with 0 walks in 51 AB (a sign of things to come), while spending most of the year in the minors. He spent another half a season in the minors in 1984, establishing himself as a major-leaguer the following year. Vernon struggled in the majors at age 21 and had established himself in the big leagues by age 22, two years before Carter. His two year head start on Carter is significant - if Baseball Prospectus has taught us anything, it's that age is perhaps the most important factor in a player's future success.

In our current live ball era 100 RBI is no longer the benchmark of an elite hitter, so Wells still has a ways to go but given his current path, a Joe Carterish career is not out of the question. One thing we should not reasonably expect from Wells is that magic .300 batting average. Although he hit .312 in 2001, I think another thing he and Carter will have in common is a single .300 season in the majors (Joe's 1986 season was the only time he hit .300, or even .280). Batting average is an overvalued statistic anyway, so as long as Wells keeps doing what he's doing now, that 5 year deal of his will look pretty good.