The Blue Jays are currently running an ad campaign on the city's buses and subways entitled "Baseball North," the best of which converts Josh Phelps' batting average to .464 with the exchange rate. For the Jays to move north in the AL standings from their now-traditional third place perch, they'll need a lot of breaks in 2003.

What kind of breaks? Almost all contending teams have rosters that stay healthy and produce more career years than off-years. For the Jays offense, this shouldn't be a problem. Among the regulars, only Carlos Delgado has reached 30, and young hitters as a group are more likely to improve than regress. It's conceivable that every single hitter in the Jays lineup could improve upon his 2002 performance.

The pitching staff is another matter. Not only will the Jays need Roy Halladay and Cory Lidle to approach their 2002 numbers, but they'll need to find at least two reliable starters among the Hendricksons, Millers and Sturtzes of the world to entertain thoughts of contention. Unearthing a pair of quality starters is no small feat.

For the sake of argument, let's say that everyone stays healthy, Chris Woodward really can hit like that for an entire year, and Mark Hendrickson pitches his way to the moniker "The Slightly Smaller Unit." They'll still need some sizable breaks, or at least strains and tears, in Boston and New York to catch the Red Sox or Yankees.

There are some question marks in Yankees rotation. Jose Contreras might be Ariel Prieto v.2. David Wells and Roger Clemens might start to pitch like fat, old guys, and Andy Pettitte's elbow might go sproing, the next time he combs his hair. Elsewhere, Robin Ventura at 35 is a decent candidate for decline, Mike Stanton replacement Chris Hammond might be a one-year wonder, Hideki Matsui might hit like Hideki Irabu, , and outfielders Rondell White and Raul Mondesi may be ineffective again in 2003.

Any one of the above might happen, but collectively, can this much woe befall the pinstripers? As Monte Burns once said of another high-priced group of ringers, "Nine separate misfortunes? That will never happen. Three misfortunes, that's possible. Seven misfortunes, there's an outside chance. But nine misfortunes? I'd like to see that!'' Frankly, so would plenty of fans in Boston and Toronto, but it's unlikely, and the Yankees have the resources to paper over any flaws that develop. This is a team that brings in 40 HR outfielders and #1 starters as mid-season acquisitions.

The Red Sox might be a better bet for decline. They were 10.5 games worse than the Yankees in 2002, and they don't have New York's starting depth. It would be a surprise if both Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield repeated their fine seasons of a year ago. The Sox should still score a lot of runs, but they're also a Pedro Martinez injury away from being vulnerable.

Ultimately, the Jays can't rely on the misfortune of others. They'll have to manufacture their own breaks. When you're trying to unseat clubs like the Evil Empire and Red Sox Nation, clubs that are outspending you two and three to one, you have to be creative, and maximize your resources. There are two low-risk, high-return gambles available on the Jays current roster that could get them closer to contention.

1. Josh Phelps, Catcher.
The organization seems to have abandoned the idea of Phelps behind the plate. He caught just 34 games in Syracuse in 2002, and hardly saw the field at all in his time in the majors, having acquired the label of 1B/DH. Obviously Phelps at catcher is not a Gold Glove waiting to happen, but his offense would more than make up for any defensive shortcomings, a la Mike Piazza.

A quick review of all AL catchers with at least 300 AB last season, minus Pudge Rodrigues, now of the Florida Marlins. (excludes stats at other positions)

	AB	HR	RBI	OPS
Posada, NYY	488	20	99	.864
Pierzynski, Min	430	6	47	.768
Wilson, Sea	353	6	44	.728
Varitek, Bos	457	10	60	.720
Hall, TB	328	6	42	.673
Hernandez, Oak	401	7	42	.651
Gil, Bal	422	12	45	.632
Mayne, KC	319	3	28	.610
Molina, Ana	422	5	46	.598
Inge, Det	316	7	23	.590
Diaz, Cle	319	2	16	.544
Phelps	265	15	58	.925

It's clear that Phelps could suffer a significant decline offensively, and still be no worse than the second best hitting catcher in the league.

The organization is holding out for Kevin Cash, a defensive wizard by all accounts, but a defensive wizard who hit .220… at Syracuse. Cash did show good pop and discipline and should be much better his second time around at AAA, but he's also 25, and there's no guarantee that he'll continue his development as a hitter.

I'm not suggesting that Phelps can or should catch 140 games, but if he can catch 100, that's 100 games worth of the best hitting catcher in the league, which then opens the DH position for the best remaining hitter, be it Jayson Werth, or Bruce Aven, or the best minor league masher Ricciardi can find. DHs are easy to find, catchers that can hit are not.

This plan is predicated on two factors: that Phelps wants to catch, and that he is healthy enough to catch. He missed the last few games of 2002 with a sore knee, not a good sign for a prospective catcher, but the injury was not considered serious, and Phelps should be healthy at camp. It's worth a shot. The worst case scenario here is that Phelps can't handle the strain of catching, and has to be moved to a less strenuous position, say, DH. A 40 HR hitter at DH is special. The number of 40 HR catchers in baseball history can be counted on one hand.

2. Kelvim Escobar, Starting Pitcher.
Between the bullpen and starting rotation, Kelvim Escobar has done more shuttling back and forth in his young career than the entire cast of Star Trek. As players begin to trickle into spring training, there is a great deal of talk about the Jays' lack of a number three starter, and how that role will likely be filled by Tanyon Sturtze. Sturtze is an improvement over Esteban Loaiza (talk about damning with faint praise), but for a third starter, the team should look no further than Escobar.

In Kelvim's last stint as a starter in 2001, he was 4-4 in 11 starts with a 3.18 ERA, while limiting opposing hitters to a .214 average. Then Billy Koch was dealt, and the Jays brass got lazy, plugging Escobar back into the closer role because he'd done it before.

I could see the argument for keeping Escobar in the pen if he'd put up Eric Gagne numbers last season, but are 78 innings and a 4.27 ERA worth the $3.9 million that Escobar will collect this year? On the other hand, if Escobar could duplicate that ERA as a starter, he'd be a steal, and would vault the Jays rotation to respectability.

As for replacement closers, the Jays have both Cliff Politte, who put up better numbers than Escobar in 2002, and Rule 5 pickup Aquilino Lopez, who was lights out at AAA Tacoma last season. Neither Politte, nor A-Lo (it'll catch on, trust me) has shown the ability to start. Escobar has, and to limit him to a relief role, even if it is the vaunted mantle of "closer," is a waste of a live, sound young arm.

Neither of these moves is guaranteed to succeed, but the potential rewards are so much greater than the risks, that they're worth the experiment. And on a team that everyone on the planet is picking to finish third, there's no better time to experiment.