Toronto Baseball Guys
Sunday, December 13, 2009
To Trade or Not to Trade
Roy Halladay is the greatest Jays pitcher ever. Just consider the comparisons. He’s got the longevity to match “Diamond” Jim Clancy, without the losses; the stuff to match Roger Clemens without the alleged needle marks in his rump; the Cy Young to match Pat Hentgen, and the game day intensity of Jack Morris and Dave Stewart, while managing to spend more time doing it for the Jays. Halladay’s ability to pitch so much better than the bullpen, leading to multiple blown leads is comparable to Juan Guzman, without that curly mullet and he’s got a wife who challenges Cindy Key for the great social conscience award. The only comparable pitcher to spend a career in the baby blue is Dave Stieb, but Roy hasn’t subjected us to nearly as many in-game jock strap adjustments.
There is no doubt that Roy Halladay is a great pitcher, a great guy and a great bet to be traded. Halladay’s “people” have informed the general public that he will not entertain any trade talks once spring training begins. I’m pretty sure he’s bluffing, but that’s beside the point. He really should be traded as soon as possible for both his sake, and the Jays’.
He can’t help this team:
Halladay had a pretty good year by his standards, and the Jays still finished fourth. Attendance at Jays games was miserable last year even with the ace on the mound. The team doesn’t need to hang on to a great player for one more year if he’s going to help them to third or fourth place. It doesn’t matter how great he is.
Play For the Future:
There seem to be several exciting players developing within the Jays’ system. It’s time to start focussing on the Linds, Hills and Sniders without subjecting them to a summer long Roy Halladay farewell tour, sprinkled with some “Reports of my refusal to accept a trade after spring were vastly overrated”.
Fleece the Enemy:
If the Jays are planning to contend in a few years, it would help if they take some good young players who will be dominating at that time away from their competition. Do this trade, and put a hurt on someone’s farm system, Yankees, Bosox, Angels, anyone.
Now that we’re all in agreement on whether or not to trade Roy Halladay, our focus shifts to what we should get for him. It’s time to make like the winners of the old Wheel of Fortune. As we superimpose our heads onto the showcase of available major league talent we can see a lot of shiny happy players. I’m waiting like a kid on chanukah to see what gifts Santanthopolous has for us, but while we’re at it, I’d like to make a suggestion.
No Pitchers:
Are we done trying to build through pitching yet? Pitchers get injured, they just do! I’m sick and tired of salivating about the next great young arm, only to hear that they’ve taken a precautionary visit to Birmingham Alabama to meet Dr. James Andrews. One year later, they’re trying to find out what happened to their velocity, control and locker in the change room.
I also don’t like promising young pitchers with “lightning bolts for arms”, because too often we find out about their “ten cent heads” –my credit to Crash Davis, and apologies to AJ-. Roy Halladay is one of those rarities who has managed to combine a great arm with a great psychology, but not every young guy throwing 100 mph knows how to pitch, or is able to figure it out eventually.
It’s also difficult for a team to carry a swagger when it’s relying on pitching alone. Good pitching performances are keys to winning, but no good pitcher has a winning performance every time out. There is nothing more frustrating than wasting a Doc Halladay line of 1 ER 9 IP in a 1-0 loss. Even worse, there’s nothing more demoralising than knowing the ace is on the mound and joining the game in progress only to see that he’s down 4-0. It doesn’t matter how well Roy pitches for the next six innings, with no run support, the game’s over.
Consider the extreme case of the 2009 Yankees. Certainly they had some good pitching, but they also had a line up that seemed to win a game in its final at bat every other night. When a good pitcher has a bad start, they’re in the showers watching their team lose. When a good hitting line up has a bad start, they’re due and everybody knows it. The opposing staff starts over thinking and under pitching, setting the table for the next great comeback. A strong offence is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Jays also have a bevy of young arms that have proven themselves capable of pitching. This should fill the void until the young bats develop. After that, some of the throwers can become pitchers, and the rest of the holes can be covered through greedy free agent pitchers salivating at the chance to pitch for an offence that will spot them six runs a night. I recall Curt Shilling –then of the Diamondbacks- suggesting he’d ok a trade to the Jays in the first half of ’03 when they were pounding the ball all over the park.
Consider some current Jays:
Adam Lind (lf/dh/1b)
Aaron Hill (2b)
Travis Snider (rf) –he’s developing…right?
Vernon Wells (cf)-he’s bound to start hitting sooner or later
Those are four bats that could strike some fear in pitchers for a few years to come. Add three young hotshot bats from a Halladay trade and they could probably cover two of Lind’s spots, and one more at third base. If two of those pan out, you’ve got six good bats, which can be rounded out with defensive minded players at catcher, short and –sorry Vernon- cf. I’m not saying that it will all work out, but I don’t remember a lot of pitchers fearing the bats of Borders, Lee and White at the start of the 1992 campaign. Besides, MLB isn’t looking the other way anymore when it come to steroids, short stop and centre field might go back to the way of the glove-first, bat-if-you-have-to players.
Roy, it’s been a pleasure, but I think we’re going to go in a different direction. ¶ posted by Mark at 11:32 PM | 8 comments links to this post
There is no doubt that Roy Halladay is a great pitcher, a great guy and a great bet to be traded. Halladay’s “people” have informed the general public that he will not entertain any trade talks once spring training begins. I’m pretty sure he’s bluffing, but that’s beside the point. He really should be traded as soon as possible for both his sake, and the Jays’.
He can’t help this team:
Halladay had a pretty good year by his standards, and the Jays still finished fourth. Attendance at Jays games was miserable last year even with the ace on the mound. The team doesn’t need to hang on to a great player for one more year if he’s going to help them to third or fourth place. It doesn’t matter how great he is.
Play For the Future:
There seem to be several exciting players developing within the Jays’ system. It’s time to start focussing on the Linds, Hills and Sniders without subjecting them to a summer long Roy Halladay farewell tour, sprinkled with some “Reports of my refusal to accept a trade after spring were vastly overrated”.
Fleece the Enemy:
If the Jays are planning to contend in a few years, it would help if they take some good young players who will be dominating at that time away from their competition. Do this trade, and put a hurt on someone’s farm system, Yankees, Bosox, Angels, anyone.
Now that we’re all in agreement on whether or not to trade Roy Halladay, our focus shifts to what we should get for him. It’s time to make like the winners of the old Wheel of Fortune. As we superimpose our heads onto the showcase of available major league talent we can see a lot of shiny happy players. I’m waiting like a kid on chanukah to see what gifts Santanthopolous has for us, but while we’re at it, I’d like to make a suggestion.
No Pitchers:
Are we done trying to build through pitching yet? Pitchers get injured, they just do! I’m sick and tired of salivating about the next great young arm, only to hear that they’ve taken a precautionary visit to Birmingham Alabama to meet Dr. James Andrews. One year later, they’re trying to find out what happened to their velocity, control and locker in the change room.
I also don’t like promising young pitchers with “lightning bolts for arms”, because too often we find out about their “ten cent heads” –my credit to Crash Davis, and apologies to AJ-. Roy Halladay is one of those rarities who has managed to combine a great arm with a great psychology, but not every young guy throwing 100 mph knows how to pitch, or is able to figure it out eventually.
It’s also difficult for a team to carry a swagger when it’s relying on pitching alone. Good pitching performances are keys to winning, but no good pitcher has a winning performance every time out. There is nothing more frustrating than wasting a Doc Halladay line of 1 ER 9 IP in a 1-0 loss. Even worse, there’s nothing more demoralising than knowing the ace is on the mound and joining the game in progress only to see that he’s down 4-0. It doesn’t matter how well Roy pitches for the next six innings, with no run support, the game’s over.
Consider the extreme case of the 2009 Yankees. Certainly they had some good pitching, but they also had a line up that seemed to win a game in its final at bat every other night. When a good pitcher has a bad start, they’re in the showers watching their team lose. When a good hitting line up has a bad start, they’re due and everybody knows it. The opposing staff starts over thinking and under pitching, setting the table for the next great comeback. A strong offence is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Jays also have a bevy of young arms that have proven themselves capable of pitching. This should fill the void until the young bats develop. After that, some of the throwers can become pitchers, and the rest of the holes can be covered through greedy free agent pitchers salivating at the chance to pitch for an offence that will spot them six runs a night. I recall Curt Shilling –then of the Diamondbacks- suggesting he’d ok a trade to the Jays in the first half of ’03 when they were pounding the ball all over the park.
Consider some current Jays:
Adam Lind (lf/dh/1b)
Aaron Hill (2b)
Travis Snider (rf) –he’s developing…right?
Vernon Wells (cf)-he’s bound to start hitting sooner or later
Those are four bats that could strike some fear in pitchers for a few years to come. Add three young hotshot bats from a Halladay trade and they could probably cover two of Lind’s spots, and one more at third base. If two of those pan out, you’ve got six good bats, which can be rounded out with defensive minded players at catcher, short and –sorry Vernon- cf. I’m not saying that it will all work out, but I don’t remember a lot of pitchers fearing the bats of Borders, Lee and White at the start of the 1992 campaign. Besides, MLB isn’t looking the other way anymore when it come to steroids, short stop and centre field might go back to the way of the glove-first, bat-if-you-have-to players.
Roy, it’s been a pleasure, but I think we’re going to go in a different direction. ¶ posted by Mark at 11:32 PM | 8 comments links to this post
Monday, October 12, 2009
ALDS Game 3 - St. Jeter Strikes Again
Nick Punto had barely been tagged out at third when the words were out of Chip Caray's mouth that Derek Jeter had made yet another spectacular play.
That's just wrong.
Al Gionfriddo robbing Joe DiMaggio at the fence is a spectacular play.
Willie Mays tracking Vic Wertz' drive 460 feet is a spectacular play.
Devon White slamming into the wall to start a near triple play is a spectacular play.
Pretty much anything Brooks Robinson did in the postseason is a spectacular play.
Spotting an idiot baserunner and then throwing him out does not qualify as a spectacular play.
Jeter's already a god in New York, will be a 3,000 hit man, and is a deserving Hall of Famer. He really doesn't need to pad his resume with such fluff.
Thankfully, the TBS colour guy - Ron Darling, I believe - was rational enough to realize that the play was far more about Nick Punto's mistake than it was about Jeter's inherent greatness.
It helped that Carlos Gomez had run the Twins out of an inning in Game 2, thus providing the TV pundits with an easy, connect-the-dots narrative for the series:
Simply put, the Twins would likely still be playing baseball if not for their own bad baserunning...
... and the inability of the umpire whose sole job it is to call fair and foul balls to do so correctly
... and the fact that the Yankees play in a park with the approximate dimensions of a phone booth
... and A-Rod's new masking agent
Ok, so there are SEVERAL reasons the Twins aren't playing baseball any more. Derek Jeter's defensive wizardry is not among them. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 11:11 AM | 1 comments links to this post
That's just wrong.
Al Gionfriddo robbing Joe DiMaggio at the fence is a spectacular play.
Willie Mays tracking Vic Wertz' drive 460 feet is a spectacular play.
Devon White slamming into the wall to start a near triple play is a spectacular play.
Pretty much anything Brooks Robinson did in the postseason is a spectacular play.
Spotting an idiot baserunner and then throwing him out does not qualify as a spectacular play.
Jeter's already a god in New York, will be a 3,000 hit man, and is a deserving Hall of Famer. He really doesn't need to pad his resume with such fluff.
Thankfully, the TBS colour guy - Ron Darling, I believe - was rational enough to realize that the play was far more about Nick Punto's mistake than it was about Jeter's inherent greatness.
It helped that Carlos Gomez had run the Twins out of an inning in Game 2, thus providing the TV pundits with an easy, connect-the-dots narrative for the series:
Simply put, the Twins would likely still be playing baseball if not for their own bad baserunning...
... and the inability of the umpire whose sole job it is to call fair and foul balls to do so correctly
... and the fact that the Yankees play in a park with the approximate dimensions of a phone booth
... and A-Rod's new masking agent
Ok, so there are SEVERAL reasons the Twins aren't playing baseball any more. Derek Jeter's defensive wizardry is not among them. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 11:11 AM | 1 comments links to this post
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Job Tips For J.P.
It's unlikely that J.P. Ricciardi will land another position as a major league General Manager, but if he should find himself in such a media-intensive situation again, here are some pointers on how to answer certain questions:
Scenario #1) Radio show caller asks about the possibility of acquiring Adam Dunn.
Recommended Answer: He's a talented player, but we've had no discussions regarding him, and we like the make-up of our outfield... (continue to praise the efforts of your personnel at the major league level, while touting the potential of those in your minor league chain).
NOT: Oh no, you don't want him - that guy has no heart, he'd be a terrible fit.
Sure, answer #1 is kind of boring, but it doesn't a) offend a player and his organization, thus making that player an unacquirable asset, and b) force you to spend a lot of time and energy making apologies and clarifying the ways in which you acted stupidly. What if the market had gone soft this past winter, and the Jays had had the opportunity to land Dunn on a 1-year/$6 million type of deal? Those 38 homers would have looked awfully good in left field and more than compensated for the fact that he's a blundering lummox in the outfield. Of course, that could never have happened, because now Adam Dunn hates you.
Scenario #2) The trade deadline is coming up and you guys aren't in contention. Would you trade Roy Halladay?
Recommended Answer: Roy Halladay is the heart and soul of our organization. We're not remotely interested in trading him.
NOT: Well, we wouldn't be doing our job if we didn't listen to offers.
Answer #2 has the benefit of being absolutely true. It also chums the water for rampant media speculation and results in relentless trade questions and rumours for almost a month. Of course it's your job to listen to trade offers, but you don't have to broadcast that. You simply dismiss all rumours flatly. Then, if you manage to land Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ and other shiny objects, you can grudgingly give the "they blew us away with an offer we simply couldn't refuse" mea culpa at the post-trade press conference.
Scenario #3) B.J. Ryan is listed as day-to-day. Is it anything serious? And isn't that Dr. James Andrews standing over there?
Recommended Answer: It started off as some mild discomfort. We're concerned that it may be something more serious and we're taking all precautions and exploring all avenues.
NOT: Nah, he's fine. Dr. Andrews? Oh, he's helping me install some drywall this weekend. (to be followed two days later with:) Oh, B.J.? Yeah, he should be getting out of surgery about now.
Lying about Ryan's condition wasn't going to make it any better, but it helped to alienate a group of reporters who didn't care much for Ricciardi in the first place. Some of them had been calling for his head since about the 3rd minute after he arrived back in 2001.
Ironically, he was too honest and too deceptive, just at the wrong times. He was a Moneyball guy, a book whose premise was "you can win without money if you're smarter than everyone else." Coming from that background, you had better win or be really likeable, or you're going to be the butt of jokes about computers and spreadsheets.
Ricciardi came off as too slick and too confident for media tastes (and based on his treatment in the Toronto Sun, he may have skullfu**ed Steve Simmons' cat). He downsized the scouting department, axing many of the traditional scouts that beat writers love.
None of the scenarios above cost Ricciardi his job - but they certainly complicated it. Ultimately, he was fired because the big moves he made - the high-risk, high-reward moves - failed. He was gutsy with a pretty good eye for talent, but in the end he just didn't win.
Ricciardi did make out better than fellow Oakland alum Paul DePodesta, dubbed "Google Boy" by the L.A. media and run out of town after just a year helming the Dodgers. With no playoff appearances in eight years running the Jays, and Moneyball a fading memory, J.P will be hard-pressed to land as prominent a post again. If he does, he'll have to watch his mouth. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 5:27 PM | 0 comments links to this post
Scenario #1) Radio show caller asks about the possibility of acquiring Adam Dunn.
Recommended Answer: He's a talented player, but we've had no discussions regarding him, and we like the make-up of our outfield... (continue to praise the efforts of your personnel at the major league level, while touting the potential of those in your minor league chain).
NOT: Oh no, you don't want him - that guy has no heart, he'd be a terrible fit.
Sure, answer #1 is kind of boring, but it doesn't a) offend a player and his organization, thus making that player an unacquirable asset, and b) force you to spend a lot of time and energy making apologies and clarifying the ways in which you acted stupidly. What if the market had gone soft this past winter, and the Jays had had the opportunity to land Dunn on a 1-year/$6 million type of deal? Those 38 homers would have looked awfully good in left field and more than compensated for the fact that he's a blundering lummox in the outfield. Of course, that could never have happened, because now Adam Dunn hates you.
Scenario #2) The trade deadline is coming up and you guys aren't in contention. Would you trade Roy Halladay?
Recommended Answer: Roy Halladay is the heart and soul of our organization. We're not remotely interested in trading him.
NOT: Well, we wouldn't be doing our job if we didn't listen to offers.
Answer #2 has the benefit of being absolutely true. It also chums the water for rampant media speculation and results in relentless trade questions and rumours for almost a month. Of course it's your job to listen to trade offers, but you don't have to broadcast that. You simply dismiss all rumours flatly. Then, if you manage to land Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ and other shiny objects, you can grudgingly give the "they blew us away with an offer we simply couldn't refuse" mea culpa at the post-trade press conference.
Scenario #3) B.J. Ryan is listed as day-to-day. Is it anything serious? And isn't that Dr. James Andrews standing over there?
Recommended Answer: It started off as some mild discomfort. We're concerned that it may be something more serious and we're taking all precautions and exploring all avenues.
NOT: Nah, he's fine. Dr. Andrews? Oh, he's helping me install some drywall this weekend. (to be followed two days later with:) Oh, B.J.? Yeah, he should be getting out of surgery about now.
Lying about Ryan's condition wasn't going to make it any better, but it helped to alienate a group of reporters who didn't care much for Ricciardi in the first place. Some of them had been calling for his head since about the 3rd minute after he arrived back in 2001.
Ironically, he was too honest and too deceptive, just at the wrong times. He was a Moneyball guy, a book whose premise was "you can win without money if you're smarter than everyone else." Coming from that background, you had better win or be really likeable, or you're going to be the butt of jokes about computers and spreadsheets.
Ricciardi came off as too slick and too confident for media tastes (and based on his treatment in the Toronto Sun, he may have skullfu**ed Steve Simmons' cat). He downsized the scouting department, axing many of the traditional scouts that beat writers love.
None of the scenarios above cost Ricciardi his job - but they certainly complicated it. Ultimately, he was fired because the big moves he made - the high-risk, high-reward moves - failed. He was gutsy with a pretty good eye for talent, but in the end he just didn't win.
Ricciardi did make out better than fellow Oakland alum Paul DePodesta, dubbed "Google Boy" by the L.A. media and run out of town after just a year helming the Dodgers. With no playoff appearances in eight years running the Jays, and Moneyball a fading memory, J.P will be hard-pressed to land as prominent a post again. If he does, he'll have to watch his mouth. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 5:27 PM | 0 comments links to this post
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Attendance Non-Story
There was much hand-wringing in the local media this week as the Jays drew some paltry numbers for their series against Minnesota. Two of the games attracted just over 11,000 fans, the two lowest crowds in the 21-history of the SkyRogersDomeCentreObservatorium.
"Jays Fans Have Lost Interest!" cried the headlines.
Well, duh.
Let's keep in mind that these games took place:
* in the middle of the week
* or the middle of the day
* the first week back to school
* and featured an also-ran team
* battling another also-ran team
Add in the fact that the Film Festival is in town and suddenly 11,000 people doesn't seem all that bad.
As has been pointed out by ESPN's Rob Neyer more than once, people will come to the ballpark for two things: a winning team and free stuff. There are rare exceptions, such as record watches for the likes of Bonds and McGwire before him, and sometimes the lure of a new stadium - but even that didn't work in the cases of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
It's not that the Jays have been abandoned by their fanbase, it's that their fanbase is fairly apathetic about watching them gun for win #63 in September. Win #93? That would be a different story. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 9:51 PM | 0 comments links to this post
"Jays Fans Have Lost Interest!" cried the headlines.
Well, duh.
Let's keep in mind that these games took place:
* in the middle of the week
* or the middle of the day
* the first week back to school
* and featured an also-ran team
* battling another also-ran team
Add in the fact that the Film Festival is in town and suddenly 11,000 people doesn't seem all that bad.
As has been pointed out by ESPN's Rob Neyer more than once, people will come to the ballpark for two things: a winning team and free stuff. There are rare exceptions, such as record watches for the likes of Bonds and McGwire before him, and sometimes the lure of a new stadium - but even that didn't work in the cases of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
It's not that the Jays have been abandoned by their fanbase, it's that their fanbase is fairly apathetic about watching them gun for win #63 in September. Win #93? That would be a different story. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 9:51 PM | 0 comments links to this post
Sunday, August 23, 2009
This Rollercoaster Goes Right Off A Cliff
The Blue Jays currently stand at 57-65, 4th in the American League East. That's not terribly surprising, particularly in view of Tampa's ascendance last season.
But there are a lot of ways to get to 57-65, and the one the Jays have chosen has to be the most painful possible, as the team has Jekyll and Hyded its way to mediocrity.
Just imagine travelling back in time 5 months and telling expectant Jays fans the following:
The Good: Roy Halladay will compete for the Cy Young Award.
The Bad: Every other pitcher you've heard of will get hurt.
The Good: B.J. Ryan is now two years removed from Tommy John surgery
The Bad: He's also 8 MPH removed from his best fastball and we'll be eating the last $15 million or so of his contract.
The Good: Scott Rolen will stay healthy, hit .320 and play eye-popping defense.
The Bad: He'll then ask for a trade.
The Good: Aaron Hill will not only return from a near career-ending concussion, he'll blossom into a 30+ home run hitter. Oh yeah, so will Adam Lind, giving the Jays two inexpensive, productive young hitters.
The Bad: That won't be quite enough to offset the offensive abortions perpetrated by Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, for the bargain basement price of $27 million - or about $1 million per homer.
The Good: #1 pick Ricky Romero will justify the organization's faith in him and contend for Rookie of the Year.
The Bad: #1 pick David Purcey will walk the population of Nevada, and then be sent there in exile for the forseeable future.
The Good: For the first time in recent memory, the Jays will actually stomp the weak sisters of the AL and wrack up an impressive 27-14 record out of the gate.
The Bad: For the first time in recent memory, the Jays will be blown out of the water by the Red Sox and Yankees, negating their good work against everyone else.
The Good: Travis Snider will hit tape measure home runs from the #9 spot...
The Bad: ...until about the 3rd week of April, when he goes all Carlos Delgado circa 1994 and is dispatched to Las Vegas.
The Good: Marco Scutaro will solve the shortstop dilemna and become one of the top leadoff men in the league.
The Bad: He'll drive in more runs than a healthy Vernon Wells.
The Good: Roy Halladay, most beloved baseball player in these parts since the glory years will start the All-Star Game.
The Bad: He'll be so mired in trade rumours by that time that it will be next-to-impossible to enjoy the moment.
The Good: The team will find nearly $60 million in salary relief.
The Bad: They'll do it by letting Alex Rios, an all-star just two years ago, be claimed on waivers for nothing.
The Good: $60 million can buy lots of neat stuff for a baseball team looking to compete.
The Bad: Not if it goes into the pockets of owners looking to sell the team.
Stack up all the "Goods" in isolation and the Jays are cruising to a playoff spot. Stack up all the "Bads" and we could at least take solace in having the top pick in next year's draft. Since all of these things have come to pass, it's been quite a bipolar year for the Jays and their fans.
And it doesn't stand to get any better in the near future. If this were a team being held together by veterans having good years, it would easy to trade them for prospects and blow things up. But the core of the team - Hill, Lind, and to a lesser extent Snider and Romero - is certainly young enough to build around.
To that end, it's the final point that's most relevant. Who exactly is driving the bus? If Rogers is committed to the team and reinvesting saved money in that team, then the Jays might compete sooner rather than later. If they're cutting costs to make the team easier to sell, then fans could be on a path to watch the Florida Marlins North. And who knows what new ownership might look like?
For now the team remains in a kind of limbo, a team for which a plausible argument could be made for anywhere between 60 and 100 wins next season. If it's going to be closer to 60, all Jays fans can ask is that the team just tank out of the gate and not bother with raising hopes prematurely. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:45 PM | 0 comments links to this post
But there are a lot of ways to get to 57-65, and the one the Jays have chosen has to be the most painful possible, as the team has Jekyll and Hyded its way to mediocrity.
Just imagine travelling back in time 5 months and telling expectant Jays fans the following:
The Good: Roy Halladay will compete for the Cy Young Award.
The Bad: Every other pitcher you've heard of will get hurt.
The Good: B.J. Ryan is now two years removed from Tommy John surgery
The Bad: He's also 8 MPH removed from his best fastball and we'll be eating the last $15 million or so of his contract.
The Good: Scott Rolen will stay healthy, hit .320 and play eye-popping defense.
The Bad: He'll then ask for a trade.
The Good: Aaron Hill will not only return from a near career-ending concussion, he'll blossom into a 30+ home run hitter. Oh yeah, so will Adam Lind, giving the Jays two inexpensive, productive young hitters.
The Bad: That won't be quite enough to offset the offensive abortions perpetrated by Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, for the bargain basement price of $27 million - or about $1 million per homer.
The Good: #1 pick Ricky Romero will justify the organization's faith in him and contend for Rookie of the Year.
The Bad: #1 pick David Purcey will walk the population of Nevada, and then be sent there in exile for the forseeable future.
The Good: For the first time in recent memory, the Jays will actually stomp the weak sisters of the AL and wrack up an impressive 27-14 record out of the gate.
The Bad: For the first time in recent memory, the Jays will be blown out of the water by the Red Sox and Yankees, negating their good work against everyone else.
The Good: Travis Snider will hit tape measure home runs from the #9 spot...
The Bad: ...until about the 3rd week of April, when he goes all Carlos Delgado circa 1994 and is dispatched to Las Vegas.
The Good: Marco Scutaro will solve the shortstop dilemna and become one of the top leadoff men in the league.
The Bad: He'll drive in more runs than a healthy Vernon Wells.
The Good: Roy Halladay, most beloved baseball player in these parts since the glory years will start the All-Star Game.
The Bad: He'll be so mired in trade rumours by that time that it will be next-to-impossible to enjoy the moment.
The Good: The team will find nearly $60 million in salary relief.
The Bad: They'll do it by letting Alex Rios, an all-star just two years ago, be claimed on waivers for nothing.
The Good: $60 million can buy lots of neat stuff for a baseball team looking to compete.
The Bad: Not if it goes into the pockets of owners looking to sell the team.
Stack up all the "Goods" in isolation and the Jays are cruising to a playoff spot. Stack up all the "Bads" and we could at least take solace in having the top pick in next year's draft. Since all of these things have come to pass, it's been quite a bipolar year for the Jays and their fans.
And it doesn't stand to get any better in the near future. If this were a team being held together by veterans having good years, it would easy to trade them for prospects and blow things up. But the core of the team - Hill, Lind, and to a lesser extent Snider and Romero - is certainly young enough to build around.
To that end, it's the final point that's most relevant. Who exactly is driving the bus? If Rogers is committed to the team and reinvesting saved money in that team, then the Jays might compete sooner rather than later. If they're cutting costs to make the team easier to sell, then fans could be on a path to watch the Florida Marlins North. And who knows what new ownership might look like?
For now the team remains in a kind of limbo, a team for which a plausible argument could be made for anywhere between 60 and 100 wins next season. If it's going to be closer to 60, all Jays fans can ask is that the team just tank out of the gate and not bother with raising hopes prematurely. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:45 PM | 0 comments links to this post
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
The Scott Rolen Trade in 8 Points
1. "Trading Scott Rolen but not Roy Halladay means the Jays are an organization in total disarray." - This was the popular topic being tossed around on the Fan Radio's Prime Time Sports the other day. Actually, it just represents that Rolen wanted a trade, and that J.P. Ricciardi didn't get the swag he needed to part with Halladay.
2. Rolen had done this before. Both in Philadelphia and St. Louis, Rolen had greased the skids for his own departure, after feuding with Phillies management and badly wanting to get away from Tony LaRussa. Rolen's request for a trade is more telling about the player than the organization.
3. The Jays save a bunch of payroll for this season and next because they are now off the hook for the last season and a half of Rolen's 8-year/$90 million contract.
4. "Edwin Encarnacion is a bum" - Bob McCowan's terse dismissal of the Jays' new third baseman, based on Sun Media's Bob Elliott statement that scouts agree that Encarnacion "isn't a third baseman." He's certainly not in Rolen's league as a defender, but he's only 26 and has a career OPS of .791. He also launched 26 home runs last season. Simply put, if the Philadelphia Phillies can win a championship with Pedro Feliz at third base, it's possible to win with Edwin Encarnacion.
5. The rest of the swag. Early reports of Rolen for top prospect Yonder Alonso were indeed too good to be true, but Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart aren't bad. Both are strikeout-an-inning relievers, and Roenicke was closing games in AAA. Coming up with a few cheap years of closer-like relief ought to prevent another B.J. Ryan debacle.
6. Curse of The Hot Corner? Encarnacion better hope that the Jays don't trade him. Witness the last few third basemen the Jays have dealt:
Shea Hillenbrand: hitting .310 when traded, out of baseball within two years.
Corey Koskie: suffered a career-ending concussion with the Brewers.
Troy Glaus: decent first season with St. Louis, has yet to take the field in 2009 due to injury.
Scott Rolen: beaned in his second game with the Reds and has been out of the lineup since.
7. Sadly, the trade will cost Rolen his eighth Gold Glove, as players who switch leagues mid-season almost never receive award consideration. Too bad, too, because with incumbent Adrian Beltre on the shelf for most of the year, it was Rolen's to lose.
8. Does this trade make any sense from the Reds point of view? Let's see, we're tied for last, 15 games under .500. Our nominal #1 starter is out for a year with Tommy John surgery... time to deal some young pitchers to add that 34-year-old making $11 million! This seems like the antithesis of the trades the Reds ought to be making if they intend to rebuild.
To sum up, the Jays shed payroll and add a couple of promising, unproven arms in exchange for a player who wanted out. Not a bad haul for J.P. Ricciardi, though not nearly enough to stem the media choir that is wailing for his head, his genius license long having been revoked since the Jays' 27-14 start. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 1:19 PM | 0 comments links to this post
2. Rolen had done this before. Both in Philadelphia and St. Louis, Rolen had greased the skids for his own departure, after feuding with Phillies management and badly wanting to get away from Tony LaRussa. Rolen's request for a trade is more telling about the player than the organization.
3. The Jays save a bunch of payroll for this season and next because they are now off the hook for the last season and a half of Rolen's 8-year/$90 million contract.
4. "Edwin Encarnacion is a bum" - Bob McCowan's terse dismissal of the Jays' new third baseman, based on Sun Media's Bob Elliott statement that scouts agree that Encarnacion "isn't a third baseman." He's certainly not in Rolen's league as a defender, but he's only 26 and has a career OPS of .791. He also launched 26 home runs last season. Simply put, if the Philadelphia Phillies can win a championship with Pedro Feliz at third base, it's possible to win with Edwin Encarnacion.
5. The rest of the swag. Early reports of Rolen for top prospect Yonder Alonso were indeed too good to be true, but Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart aren't bad. Both are strikeout-an-inning relievers, and Roenicke was closing games in AAA. Coming up with a few cheap years of closer-like relief ought to prevent another B.J. Ryan debacle.
6. Curse of The Hot Corner? Encarnacion better hope that the Jays don't trade him. Witness the last few third basemen the Jays have dealt:
Shea Hillenbrand: hitting .310 when traded, out of baseball within two years.
Corey Koskie: suffered a career-ending concussion with the Brewers.
Troy Glaus: decent first season with St. Louis, has yet to take the field in 2009 due to injury.
Scott Rolen: beaned in his second game with the Reds and has been out of the lineup since.
7. Sadly, the trade will cost Rolen his eighth Gold Glove, as players who switch leagues mid-season almost never receive award consideration. Too bad, too, because with incumbent Adrian Beltre on the shelf for most of the year, it was Rolen's to lose.
8. Does this trade make any sense from the Reds point of view? Let's see, we're tied for last, 15 games under .500. Our nominal #1 starter is out for a year with Tommy John surgery... time to deal some young pitchers to add that 34-year-old making $11 million! This seems like the antithesis of the trades the Reds ought to be making if they intend to rebuild.
To sum up, the Jays shed payroll and add a couple of promising, unproven arms in exchange for a player who wanted out. Not a bad haul for J.P. Ricciardi, though not nearly enough to stem the media choir that is wailing for his head, his genius license long having been revoked since the Jays' 27-14 start. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 1:19 PM | 0 comments links to this post
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Closer Shmoser
Question: If you look into the 2009 Jays bullpen, how can you determine which player is their closer?
Answer: He's the most ineffective one.
Why is it, that Jays fans have to fear closers entering a game regardless of whether it’s theirs or their opponents’? Jays closers stand on the mound and look afraid to throw the next pitch. They sweat, take eons between actions, and lose all sense of what they want to do. They’re like an eighties movie nerd infiltrating a party at the Jock’s house.
Scott Downs has been stellar for the Jays over the last few seasons. Last year's numbers were tremendous -era 1.78 and an OPS of 0.584-, and his start to this season was absolutely sick, with an era of 0.59 by early May. Since that point, Downs has produced some wretched performances. He's blown three saves, and picked up two losses, while ballooning his era to 3.06.
What's changed over that time? For starters, he's become the closer. Once it became clear that the incredible shrinking Ryan wasn't meant to pitch as a featherweight -Hey look on the bright side BJ, if the $ 15 million you're "earning" right now dries up, maybe you can sell your weight loss secrets- Scott Downs was installed as the closer. Since that time his results have ranged from capable to baroque. Anyone watching the most recent Jays fiasco -converting a 9-1 lead into a loss- just knew that the two run advantage given to Downs in the ninth wouldn’t be enough.
The Blue Jays current closer experiment has gone awry. Not only is Downs a below average stopper, he’s also been ripped from his comfort zone of set up and middle relief--a position that he fills as well as anyone in baseball--Downs’ weakness as closer probably comes from a combination of the added pressure and the irregularity of "closer" innings. Downs seems to work better when he’s being used with a high and regular frequency. Sometimes closers can go nearly a week between appearances and these conditions don’t seem to optimize Downs’ performances.
My Recommendation
It’s time the Jays go back to closer by committee. Having a bullpen full of arms expecting that they might get to close can have several benefits:
Hot Hand:
This way, Cito can go with the arm that’s been most effective lately. We all know that every third day Brandon League manages to get his hose under control. Take advantage of these good days, rather than stubbornly sticking with his closer just because he’s managed to earn that contrived label. This will also allow Cito to stick with a guy if he was lights out in the eighth inning, rather than going to a new arm that may or may not be on.
Reduced Pressure:
Jays’ closers tend to perform like favoured Canadian Olympians not competing in Trampoline or 100 m finals –full credit to Cockburn, Karen and Johnson Ben-. Without the closer label, expectations are reduced and there is less pressure on the pitcher.
The Cream Might Rise:
A lot of pitchers can throw shutout innings. The ability of pitchers to do this in the last inning of the game seems to be different than it is in the first eight. Clearly Scott Downs is...err...was the Jays most effective pitcher out of the bullpen, but that was in a non-closing role. Maybe pitchers like Jason Frasor or Jeremy Accardo have the right combination of stuff and mental makeup. They’ve already done it, with pretty good results:
Player: Frasor
Year: 2004
Saves/Opportunities: 17/19
Player: Accardo
Year: 2007
Saves/Opportunities: 30/35
Maybe guys like Brian Tallet, Brandon League or Jesse Carlson are just weird enough that they prefer pitching under pressure. The mustache and the tatoos suggest as much.
Using all of them to close out games might help Cito realize that one or more of these guys have the makeup it takes to be a closer. Perhaps one of these guys will shock us all and succeed. It worked for Anthony Michael Hall in "Sixteen Candles". ¶ posted by Mark at 11:57 PM | 0 comments links to this post
Question: If you look into the 2009 Jays bullpen, how can you determine which player is their closer?
Answer: He's the most ineffective one.
Why is it, that Jays fans have to fear closers entering a game regardless of whether it’s theirs or their opponents’? Jays closers stand on the mound and look afraid to throw the next pitch. They sweat, take eons between actions, and lose all sense of what they want to do. They’re like an eighties movie nerd infiltrating a party at the Jock’s house.
Scott Downs has been stellar for the Jays over the last few seasons. Last year's numbers were tremendous -era 1.78 and an OPS of 0.584-, and his start to this season was absolutely sick, with an era of 0.59 by early May. Since that point, Downs has produced some wretched performances. He's blown three saves, and picked up two losses, while ballooning his era to 3.06.
What's changed over that time? For starters, he's become the closer. Once it became clear that the incredible shrinking Ryan wasn't meant to pitch as a featherweight -Hey look on the bright side BJ, if the $ 15 million you're "earning" right now dries up, maybe you can sell your weight loss secrets- Scott Downs was installed as the closer. Since that time his results have ranged from capable to baroque. Anyone watching the most recent Jays fiasco -converting a 9-1 lead into a loss- just knew that the two run advantage given to Downs in the ninth wouldn’t be enough.
The Blue Jays current closer experiment has gone awry. Not only is Downs a below average stopper, he’s also been ripped from his comfort zone of set up and middle relief--a position that he fills as well as anyone in baseball--Downs’ weakness as closer probably comes from a combination of the added pressure and the irregularity of "closer" innings. Downs seems to work better when he’s being used with a high and regular frequency. Sometimes closers can go nearly a week between appearances and these conditions don’t seem to optimize Downs’ performances.
My Recommendation
It’s time the Jays go back to closer by committee. Having a bullpen full of arms expecting that they might get to close can have several benefits:
Hot Hand:
This way, Cito can go with the arm that’s been most effective lately. We all know that every third day Brandon League manages to get his hose under control. Take advantage of these good days, rather than stubbornly sticking with his closer just because he’s managed to earn that contrived label. This will also allow Cito to stick with a guy if he was lights out in the eighth inning, rather than going to a new arm that may or may not be on.
Reduced Pressure:
Jays’ closers tend to perform like favoured Canadian Olympians not competing in Trampoline or 100 m finals –full credit to Cockburn, Karen and Johnson Ben-. Without the closer label, expectations are reduced and there is less pressure on the pitcher.
The Cream Might Rise:
A lot of pitchers can throw shutout innings. The ability of pitchers to do this in the last inning of the game seems to be different than it is in the first eight. Clearly Scott Downs is...err...was the Jays most effective pitcher out of the bullpen, but that was in a non-closing role. Maybe pitchers like Jason Frasor or Jeremy Accardo have the right combination of stuff and mental makeup. They’ve already done it, with pretty good results:
Player: Frasor
Year: 2004
Saves/Opportunities: 17/19
Player: Accardo
Year: 2007
Saves/Opportunities: 30/35
Maybe guys like Brian Tallet, Brandon League or Jesse Carlson are just weird enough that they prefer pitching under pressure. The mustache and the tatoos suggest as much.
Using all of them to close out games might help Cito realize that one or more of these guys have the makeup it takes to be a closer. Perhaps one of these guys will shock us all and succeed. It worked for Anthony Michael Hall in "Sixteen Candles". ¶ posted by Mark at 11:57 PM | 0 comments links to this post
